Fiduciary-Grade Intelligence

Kincaid IQ

The Actuarial Intelligence Platform for Private Equity

Transform raw healthcare data into investment-grade intelligence. DRAP reconstruction, credibility-weighted forecasting, Monte Carlo risk modeling, and EBITDA impact quantification in one unified platform.

$3.6M
Avg Annual Savings
15
Contract Provisions
98%
Predictive Accuracy
24hrs
Time to Insights
Platform Capabilities
Comprehensive actuarial intelligence for private equity portfolio companies
DRAP Reconstruction

Delta Realized vs Allowable Pricing analysis. Quantify PBM spread, hidden margins, and contract violations with NADAC benchmarking.

Credibility Weighting

Limited Fluctuation credibility theory. Blend group-specific experience with industry benchmarks based on statistical confidence.

Monte Carlo Simulation

10,000-iteration risk modeling with volatility bands. Quantify downside exposure and upside opportunity ranges.

EBITDA Impact

Every finding quantified in basis points. Direct translation from healthcare savings to EBITDA improvement.

Trend Decomposition

Separate medical, Rx, and catastrophic components. Model intervention impact on each independently.

Durability Analysis

Model savings persistence over 3-year horizon. Factor decay rates and intervention sustainability.

Methodology
Credibility Theory
Z = min(1, √(n/N)) limited fluctuation method
NADAC Benchmarking
National Average Drug Acquisition Cost + reasonable markup
Rebate Reconstruction
Class-level inference for manufacturer rebate estimation
Contract Compliance
Performance guarantees tested against contractual terms
Typical Findings
$1.2M
Spread pricing on generic fills (12-18% excess markup)
$890K
Hidden rebate retention (rebate passthrough violations)
$620K
Specialty drug channel steering (non-preferred pharmacy)
$540K
MAC pricing manipulation (above NADAC + contractual markup)
$380K
Generic substitution failures (brand dispensed when generic available)